Afghanistan | July 20, 2023
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ALCIS reported on 7 June 2023 that, as a result of the announcement of a ban on the cultivation and production of opium in Afghanistan in April 2022 (just seven months after taking power), the Taliban have managed to reduce poppy cultivation to levels not seen since their 2000-2001 prohibition. In March 2023, a further ban targeted the cultivation of cannabis and the production of hashish. According to the BBC, the Taliban had already banned ephedra cultivation used for the methamphetamine industry in 2021 (BBC News, 12 December 2021). In an article published on 8 June 2023, the United States Institute of Peace thinks that such bans impose “huge economic and humanitarian costs on Afghans and it is likely to further stimulate an outflow of refugees. It may even result in internal challenges for the Taliban itself.”
World Watch Research analyst Thomas Muller comments: “For decades, Afghanistan has been the one of the world’s largest producers of a wide range of illicit drugs and the country’s whole economy has become increasingly dependent on this industry. It is clear that, in the long-term, the economic situation could seriously deteriorate and drive more young people to leave the country in search of better perspectives. Due to stockpiling, the Taliban’s drug bans may not have any real short-term consequences apart from increasing social inequality by benefitting land-rich south and southwestern farmers (where – by coincidence? – the power-center of the Taliban is to be found). However, it is too early to say whether the Taliban’s anti-drug policy is sustainable. As an in-depth study published by AAN on 15 June concludes:
Much will depend on whether the ban is maintained into a second and subsequent years, as lost harvests hit the incomes of richer farmers, traders deal with dwindling stockpiles of opium, the government deals with a loss of income and Afghanistan’s national economy suffers. 2024 and future years will be the real test for the [Taliban’s] anti-drug policy.”
Thomas Muller adds: “Although religious minorities in the country are not usually directly involved in drug production, any further deterioration in the economy will be an added background pressure on their lives.”
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