China | June 26, 2024
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According to the latest statistics, China’s total population has dropped by two million, accelerating a trend which began some time ago (Reuters, 17 January 2024).
World Watch Research (WWR) analyst Thomas Muller comments: “This trend confirms what experts have been saying over the last years: It is easier to limit the number of children a family is allowed to have than to encourage people to have more children. In a similar vein, it was not exactly encouraging that the deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, Sheng Laiyun, was quoted as saying in October 2023: “Although population quantity has declined, population quality is improving more rapidly” (China Digital Times, 26 October 2023).
Thomas Muller continues: “The population decline has other consequences as well. With the economic slump and less investment going into infrastructure and residential projects, the number of migrant workers running out of work and finding it difficult to make ends meet is growing (New York Times, 1 November 2023). China’s pension system, which is in need of reform, struggles to keep in step with the pace of a rapidly aging society. As Reuters reported on 18 January 2024, from 2022 to 2023, the number of people aged 60+ grew by almost 17 million to 297 million or 21.1% of the total population. However, any change in the social security system has the potential of leading to frustration and protests, something the leadership is keen to avoid. Further, reforming the system may be complicated by research findings from Tsinghua University which have revealed that the level of local government debt may be five times higher than officially admitted (East is Red, 22 December 2023).”
Thomas Muller concludes: “These developments have consequences for the Christian minority as well. Although the general trend of emigrating from China is not very pronounced, it is estimated that of those leaving China, 15-20% are Christians, a higher percentage than Christians have in the total population (China Source, 4 December 2023), which WWR estimates as being 6.7% (WWR, China Full Country Dossier, December 2023, p.21). At the same time, the numbers of Chinese youth looking for a sense in life is growing, as can be seen in the growing number of downloads of spirituality apps (Rest of the World, 20 December 2023).”
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