India | July 12, 2024
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India’s 18th general election concluded on 1 June 2024 and results were declared on 4 June. As published in India Today (accessed 5 June 2024), incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won just 240 seats, failing to cross the half-way mark of 272 seats required for an absolute majority in Parliament. The BJP had won 303 seats in the 2019 elections. Meanwhile, the leading opposition party, India National Congress (INC), nearly doubled its previous tally to win 99 seats marking a significant improvement in its electoral performance in several key states of India such as Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, Haryana and Rajasthan.
The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) of 22 political parties won 292 seats while the INC-led Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) of 24 political parties won 234 seats. Since both the major political parties could not win 272 seats on their own merit, the role of smaller regional parties such as Telugu Desam Party (TDP) in Andhra Pradesh (winning 16 seats) and Janata Dal United (JDU) in Bihar (winning 12 seats) were critical for deciding which alliance formed the government. After negotiating successfully, as of 4 June 2024, a government was formed with BJP retaining TDP and JDU in the NDA; INC was unable to woo them towards the INDIA Alliance. On 9 June 2024, Narendra Modi was sworn in as Prime Minister for the third consecutive time (BBC News, 9 June 2024).
Ryan Benjamin working for World Watch Research comments: “Although Narendra Modi has retained his position as prime minister, NDA 3.0 is likely to be very different from the earlier two terms since the BJP is now dependent on its regional parties as allies to remain in power. The checks and balances inherent in coalition government will most likely result in a decline of hardline religious majoritarian politics at the national level that the BJP has practiced over the last ten years.”
Ryan Benjamin continues: “Religious polarization and attacks against the Muslim and Christian minorities might still help the BJP’s electoral fortunes at the state level, but it is unlikely that there will be any further enthusiastic endorsement of Hindutva politics at the national level by union government ministers and leaders, including Prime Minister Modi. This is good news for Christians in India. The election results have made it clear that socio-economic issues such as unemployment and inflation have become more important for the general public than religious and other identity-based issues.”
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