Indonesia | July 12, 2024
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According to unofficial results, Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto has won the presidential election with a surprising 58% of the votes in the first round (Reuters, 15 February 2024). It may, however, prove challenging for him to cobble together a parliamentarian majority (Benar News, 16 February 2024).
World Watch Research analyst Thomas Muller comments: “While the official results will only be published later in March, it seems that Prabowo benefitted from two trends: One is that outgoing President Jokowi is still wildly popular and his eldest son will become vice-President. The other is what one observer called “historical amnesia” (Benar News, 15 February 2024): Most voters are under 40 and thus do not have any memory of the time under dictator Soeharto and the poor human rights record of the Indonesian Special Forces under General Subianto in the 1990s.”
Thomas Muller adds: “At the same time, we should keep in mind that this is only the fifth democratic election in Indonesia and so we are talking about a young democracy. Maybe the most surprising thing has been that the electoral campaigning has not been divisive and sectarian at all. And while observers think that polarization is only waiting in the wings and the policy of ‘reformasi’ will be further reversed in due course (New Mandala, 12 and 13 December 2023), Islamists and their way of thinking have by no means disappeared; they simply did not see any benefit in backing one candidate (New Mandala, 1 February 2024). And while political campaigns and crackdowns against Islamist groups are one reason for this, another is that majoritarianism is deeply ingrained in society, and religion continues to play an important role in Indonesian community life (LSE, Religion and Global Society Blog, 8 February 2024).”
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