Iran: New president to be elected at end of June

As widely reported, on 20 May 2024 Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi was killed in a helicopter crash together with Minister of Foreign Affairs Amir-Abdollahian. 63 year old Raisi was known as a staunch supporter of Supreme Leader Khamenei. Many assumed he would even succeed Khamenei, who is currently 85 years old (Reuters, 21 May 2024). 

World Watch Research analyst Michael Bosch comments: “Raisi had earned himself the nickname ‘butcher of Tehran’ because of his role in the judicial committee that sentenced thousands of political opponents to death in the 1980s. Following a long career in the judiciary of the Islamic Republic, he ultimately became its head before being elected as president in 2021. His sudden death is likely to create some initial political unrest but not cause any major change to the regime itself. Elections to select a new president will take place on 28 June and it is very likely that only hardline candidates will be allowed to run for the presidency by the powerful Guardian Council. Recently, the Council even prevented former reformist President Rouhani from being re-elected to the Assembly of Experts, the political body which selects the position of Supreme Leader (Al-Monitor, 18 May 2024). It is a clear sign that the hardliners, including Khamenei himself, want to avoid any possibility of their grip on power being threatened by the Reformist or other factions. During his presidency, Rouhani had opted for a moderate approach, which led to the 2015 nuclear deal. Reportedly, his relationship with Khamenei became tense. With Raisi, Khamenei had a president who would be loyal and not question his decisions.”

Michael Bosch continues: “Raisi and the other crash victims received a state funeral with a parade through various cities apparently aimed at stirring up nationalist feelings to unify the country behind the regime (BBC News, 21 May 2024). Though looking impressive, the crowds were considerably smaller than during the funeral of Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps General Qassem Soleimani, who was killed by a US drone strike in January 2020 (The Guardian, 22 May 2024). According to reports, thousands seem to have quietly celebrated Raisi’s death, with Iranians in exile doing it openly (Washington Post, 22 May 2024).”

Michael Bosch adds: “For Iran’s Christians, it is unlikely that the upcoming election will bring any meaningful change. It is hoped that the regime’s hardened stance will not lead to any new waves of arrests.”