Niger: Another coup in the Sahel

On 26 July 2023, troops from the Presidential guard of Niger announced on national television that they had assumed control of the government. As BBC News reported on 27 July 2023, the coup spokesman, Colonel Amadou Abdramane, said that they had dissolved the constitution, suspended all national institutions, and shut down the country's borders. President Mohamed Bazoum of Niger, who has been a key partner in the West's battle against terrorism, is reportedly held captive. The rest of the armed forces announced their support for the coup leaders (CNN, 27 July 2023). According to the New York Times reporting on 28 July 2023, two days after the president was detained, General Omar Tchiani declared himself leader of a transitional government. Meanwhile, West African bloc ECOWAS have given the coup leaders an ultimatum to restore the ousted president (DW, 31 July 2023 ) and have also authorized the use of international forces if the demand of the bloc is not meet within the prescribed timeframe.

According to a report by Reuters on 29 July 2023 which cited a voice message on a Telegram channel associated with the Wagner group, Yevgeny Prigozhin welcomed the coup as “a moment of long overdue liberation from Western colonizers” and then went on to make what looked like a pitch for his fighters to help keep order. The major ally of Prigozhin in the region, the military juntas in Burkina Faso and Mali also backed the coup leaders (Al-Jazeera, 1 August 2023). Guinea’s President Mamady Doumbouya also threw his support behind the coup leaders.

World Watch Research analyst Yonas Dembele comments: “The announcement of a military coup in Niger adds another layer of complexity to the already precarious security and political situation in the Sahel region. This follows similar developments in neighbouring Burkina Faso and Mali, where coups have led to significant political instability and disruption. The regional dynamics of these events suggest an increasing trend of military takeovers that potentially undermine democratic governance in the region.”

Yonas Dembele continues: “The reports of Russian flags visible among the supporters of the coup in Niger raise serious questions about potential foreign influence in these destabilizing events. Specifically, it brings into focus the possible involvement of Russia, which has been allegedly linked to mercenary groups like the Wagner Group that are known to support juntas in Mali and Burkina Faso. It would not be a naive speculation to suggest that Russia might be strategically attempting to weaken the influence of Western powers in the Sahel region. By facilitating the rise to power of factions sympathetic to its interests, Russia could be aiming to fill the vacuum left by the withdrawal of Western forces. France's decision to withdraw its military from the region in November 2022 might have provided an opportunity for Russia to expand its influence in the Sahel region. What is more certain is that military coups and the presence of foreign mercenaries could exacerbate political instability in the region and undermine efforts to combat the spread of jihadist groups. This puts vulnerable communities at risk, especially Christians, who are often targeted in these conflicts.”

Yonas Dembele adds: “Meanwhile jihadist attacks continue unabated. A police officer and four civilians were killed on 14 July (The Defence Post, 17 July 2023). 12 civilians were killed on 20 July (ChannelsTV, 21 July 2021). Three people were abducted on 23 July (The Nation, 24 July 2023).”