Somalia: Withdrawal of African Union peacekeepers could lead to security vacuum

As reported by the East African on 30 June 2024, by the end of December 2024, more than 10,000 troops belonging to the Africa Union Mission (ATMIS) are set to leave Somalia in the hope that the national army will be in a position to keep al-Shabaab in check. The presence of ATMIS has not had any great impact on al-Shabaab’s operations over the last 2 years. Between 20 April and 24 May 2024, ACLED reported that al-Shabaab had made 98 attacks on Somali security forces and ATMIS troops (The Independent, 30 June 2024). Most of the attacks, up to 50 of them, were on the Ugandan forces in Lower Shabelle where they operate ATMIS bases and logistics convoys, and operate airport security.
 

According to Al-Jazeera reporting on 20 June 2024, Somalia’s government is seeking to slow the withdrawal of the African Union peacekeepers, citing concerns that a hasty departure could lead to a security vacuum.
 

World Watch Research analyst Yonas Dembele comments: “Al-Shabaab, affiliated with al-Qaeda, seeks to overthrow the Somali government, expel foreign forces, and establish an Islamic state under its harsh interpretation of Sharia law. If the withdrawal of the ATMIS peacekeepers is not managed properly and creates a security vacuum, this could provide an opportunity for al-Shabaab to regain control of many areas and expand its influence, given the limited capacity of the Somali government forces. This could also result in more attacks on civilians, including bombings, kidnappings and assassinations. In a broader context, a stronger al-Shabaab could further destabilize the Horn of Africa region, potentially spilling over into neighboring countries like Kenya and Ethiopia. For a country where Christians (who are a very small minority) are persecuted both by the government and militant groups, any action that will strengthen al-Shabaab is of serious concern as it puts them at risk.”