Turkey: Election results make Christian community hopeful

The results of the municipal elections held on 31 March 2024 in Turkey have dealt an unexpected major blow to President Erdoğan’s AK Party. Both in Istanbul and Ankara, the mayors belonging to the opposition secular CHP party were re-elected. Moreover, for the first time in over two decades, the CHP (with 37.8% of the vote) obtained a higher percentage nationwide than the AK Party (with 35.5%) (The Conversation, 2 April 2024).

“President Erdoğan famously said: ‘Whoever wins Istanbul, wins Turkey’”, comments World Watch Research analyst Michael Bosch. “Hence, trusting that the electorate would simply vote for him again as in the 2023 presidential elections, he appointed a stand-in as candidate and but ran a  campaign focused on himself, not the candidate. Combined with a media landscape completely dominated by the government, many observers were expecting a tight race, but the kind Erdoğan usually wins (e.g. 52% versus 48% in the 2023 presidential elections). In contrast, Istanbul’s mayor, Ekrem Imamoğlu, received 51% of the votes, over 10% more than the AKP candidate (40%). Imamoğlu’s re-election will probably give him the momentum to stand as presidential candidate in 2028. One does wonder, though, what might have happened back in 2023 in the presidential elections if the CHP had fielded Imamoğlu as candidate, rather than the aging Kılıçdaroğlu.”

Michael Bosch continues: “Whereas Erdoğan was able to unite a majority of the voters behind his nationalistic narrative during the 2023 presidential elections, this time several factors prevented a win. Firstly, the economy has continued to deteriorate, with inflation remaining very high. After Erdoğan’s re-election as president, new austerity measures were introduced (The Conversation, 3 April 2024) and these may well have been unpopular with some previously voting for AKP. Secondly, the Islamist New Welfare Party campaigned heavily on the current war in Gaza and accused Erdoğan of being pro-Palestinian in name only because he did not cut trade ties with Israel (Middle East Eye, 5 April 2024). They won 6% of the vote (Anadolu Agency, accessed 5 April 2024). Thirdly, since the presidential elections, the secular CHP has replaced its leadership, electing and putting forward younger politicians like Imamoğlu. At the same time, it was able to reach out to more conversative voters, with Imamoğlu, for example, appearing in public with his headscarf-wearing mother. By becoming more inclusive, the CHP also made it acceptable for the Kurds to vote for them (Rudaw, 1 April 2024).”

Michael Bosch concludes: “For Turkish Christians, and all other religious and ethnic minorities, the election result is a hopeful sign: Firstly, because Imamoğlu seems genuinely inclusive, stating in his victory speech: ‘May this win be blessed for everyone in this city ... For the Kurds, the Circassians, for every ethnic group of this city’ (Rudaw English, 31 March 2024). He also remarked that the time of ‘othering and divisiveness’ is over. Secondly, because the CHP wants to restore democracy and rule of law in Turkey; Imamoğlu declared that the period of ‘one man rule is over’. Thirdly, because Erdoğan accepted the election results and acknowledged his defeat, even calling the vote a ‘turning point’ (The National News, 31 March 2024). However, it must be remembered that these were only the local elections and Erdoğan will remain in power for at least another four years. Moreover, the AKP's resilience should not be underestimated and it is very likely that they will come up with a plan to ensure they stay in power beyond that point."