Afghanistan | 10 September 2021

Afghanistan: Taliban claim to have gained full control - What now?

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As reported by BBC News on 6 September 2021, the Taliban claims to have taken control of the whole of Afghanistan after a last military offensive in the mountainous province of Panjshir, 100Km north of Kabul. Opposition forces have announced that resistance will continue. Thomas Muller, persecution analyst at World Watch Research, comments: "While the immediate focus has been on getting international staff and local helpers out of the country, the more important question is what will come next. While the Taliban have announced they will build a government on the foundation of Sharia law, there are first signs that the fighters on the ground and the political leadership may have different views on how to rule the people (Gandhara, 6 August 2021). It should be noted that it is no small task to rule a whole country and it is important to see how different Afghanistan has become compared to twenty years ago. When the Taliban first ruled in Kabul in 1996, the city had around 500,000 inhabitants; it now has between 4.5 and 5 million. Other things are depressingly similar, as there are already reports coming in from the provinces that women are being forced to leave their jobs, for example in banks (Reuters, 13 August 2021)." Thomas Muller continues: "While the relations with Western countries will arguably hover between tense and non-existent, other countries in the region stand to win, although only time will tell if such a win actually materializes. One observer already called Pakistan"s a "pyrrhic win", as radical Islamic forces in the country will be energized and rejuvenated (Foreign Affairs, 22 July 2021). Meanwhile, China officially hosted Taliban leaders (Washington Post, 28 July 2021). As China shares a short border with Afghanistan and is wary of any potential Muslim insurgents, it clearly has interests in the country. However, China undoubtedly knows Afghanistan"s infamous reputation as the "graveyard of empires", so it will be cautious not to be drawn into involvement in the security situation (The Interpreter, 30 July 2021). Whether this works out, remains to be seen." Thomas Muller concludes: "What will the future of Afghanistan look like? The first decisions the Taliban are taking may give some indication, e.g. on the inclusion of minorities or women in the government. In the long term, however, the outlook is more sobering. As one analyst wrote: "˜An Iran-like internal political and social order may be the best that can be hoped for in Afghanistan. In this system, the Taliban"s supreme council, their ruling body of 20 or so leaders, would sit atop a layer of technocratic institutions carrying out the actual business of governance" (Foreign Affairs, 17 August 2021). This seems indeed to be the preferred model with Mullah Hasan Akhund, chief of ‚ the Taliban"s leadership council "˜Rehbari Shura", leading the government, while Taliban leader Hibatullah Akhundzada is to provide spiritual guidance (Reuters, 8 September 2021). The new interior minister, Sirajuddin Haqqani, is the son of the founder of the Haqqani network, which is classified as a terrorist group by the USA. If this is the new Afghanistan, one may imagine that no religious minority in the country can hope for any increased freedom at all."

 

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