Azerbaijan | June 13, 2024
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An article published by the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute on 9 May 2022 states: “Constructive developments in negotiations for peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, particularly those mediated by the European Union, have produced a further radicalization of the opponents of such a peace. Russia is unhappy with EU and Western attempts to take the initiative for the peaceful normalization of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Russia is seeking to use the Karabakh Armenians to maintain its geopolitical position in the South Caucasus. Threats have been voiced, in both Moscow and Khankendi [Stepanakert], of the intention to seek an annexation to Russia of areas in Nagorno-Karabakh where Russian troops are located.”
World Watch Research analyst Rolf Zeegers comments: “Armenia and Azerbaijan have taken positive steps to end their conflict in the South Caucasus region. Especially the efforts by the EU in early April 2022 seem to have been particularly constructive (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 7 April 2022). Since then, there have been protests in Armenia against Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian by those opposing such peace negotiations. However, the most astonishing development can be seen in the threats being made by the Armenians in Karabakh: They are demanding that the Armenian government stop the peace negotiations or face the consequence of creating another destabilizing break-away republic under Russian protection (like Transnistria in Moldova, Donbas in Ukraine and South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia). Such threats from both Karabakh and Moscow are putting Prime Minister Pashinian in a very difficult position. It is becoming apparent that neither Karabakh nor Russia are really striving for peace. Their motto would rather seem to be: ‘Divide and rule’.”
Rolf Zeegers continues: “If the threats are realized, one result could be a split in the Armenian Apostolic Church (AAC), which, according to World Christian Database statistics, makes up 86.9% of all Christians in Armenia (WCD, Leiden/Brill, accessed April 2022). The majority of the population in Karabakh are ethnic Armenians and the largest Christian denomination there is the AAC. If Karabakh were to join Russia, the AAC would face the difficulty of having to serve congregations belonging to two conflicting sides.”
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