On Tuesday 4 May 2021 the Arab Weekly reported on the visit of
senior Turkish officials to Tripoli, signaling that the Turkish military presence in western Libya is not regarded as temporary.
World Watch Research analyst Michael Bosch sees the situation in Libya as currently very fragile and gives some background information: "The October 2020 ceasefire between the UN-supported western Government of National Accord (GNA) and Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar who supports the eastern Tobruk government still stands. After much deliberation, an interim Government of National Unity was approved by the rival governments in March 2021. Its prime-minister, Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh, is now currently trying to align all parties and interests in order to organize elections in December 2021. However, this is an almost impossible task. On the national level, there are many stakeholders, including armed groups and various factions within the former governments whose main concern seems to be to secure their own interests. But even more important is the influence of international powers: Turkish forces saved the GNA in Spring 2020 by neutralizing Field Marshal"s Haftar"s attack on Tripoli. However, such military support did not come without conditions: A
maritime deal was signed and Turkey is determined to keep its influence strong in the region (Al-Jazeera, 12 April 2021). It is now unlikely that it will withdraw its forces from the country. On the other hand, Russia is not likely to withdraw its Wagner mercenaries fighting alongside Field Marshal Haftar as long as Turkish troops and their Syrian proxy fighters remain in Libya. Nonetheless, Foreign Minister Najla al-Manqoush has said that all foreign troops need to leave the country to secure Libya"s (political) future."
Michael Bosch continues: "In the background there is an even bigger struggle playing out between Islamists linked to the Muslim Brotherhood (supported by Turkey and Qatar) and authoritarian foreign governments (including Russia, Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia) looking for influence in Libya by supporting Field Marshal Haftar"s forces. Many ordinary Libyans probably do not want either side, but it seems that their interests will not be decisive in deciding Libya"s future. For Libyan Christians from a Muslim background, the future also remains bleak. Even if the Libyans succeed in establishing a central government, it is unlikely that Freedom of Religion and Belief will be protected, judging by the 2017 draft constitution which is scheduled for a referendum vote at the same time as the December 2021 elections.‚ Middle East Concern (MEC) has this to say about the draft constitution:
"˜Contrary to the interim constitution, this document does not recognize other sources of legislation besides Islamic Shari"a. The draft also fails to guarantee freedom of religion and belief -. In practice, all Libyans are assumed to be Muslim, with
no scope for changing religion" (MEC, Libya profile, accessed 6 May 2021)
."
