While the Pakistan government has been quick in praising the Taliban take-over of Afghanistan, it is coming to realize that the relationship with its neighbor"s new rulers will pose serious challenges. As WWR has stated before (e.g. WWR, 18 October 2021), radical Islamic groups in Pakistan (such as the TTP) have been
emboldened by this victory and one TTP emir even said that his organization is a
branch of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (Long War Journal, 15 December 2021).
World Watch Research analyst Thomas Muller comments: "While this statement by the TTP emir may be an outlier, it shows how close the ties between Afghan and Pakistan Taliban are, shown especially by, but not limited to, the Haqqani network. This clearly has Islamabad worried, but it seems that the risk is deemed manageable, at least for the time being. Another sign that being neighbors with an Afghanistan ruled by Taliban is not smooth sailing were the recent
border clashes along the Durand line, which Pakistan is fencing off at the moment (Dawn, 3 January 2022). No Afghan government, no matter what orientation, has ever accepted the Durand line as the country"s international border and it seems that the Taliban also wanted to make this clear. On the other hand, the
assassination of a high-ranking TTP member in the Afghan province of Nangarhar on 9 January 2022 has shaken the assurance of the Pakistan Taliban that they enjoy a safe haven in Afghanistan (Jamestown Foundation, 28 January 2022). No-one has claimed responsibility for the targeted killing. As International Crisis Group summed up in a comprehensive report published on 4 February 2022, Pakistan is having to cope with a
delicate balancing act, challenging its own security. Pakistan"s relationship with the Taliban in Afghanistan may have become less smooth than it appeared at first sight and it could well be that the Pakistan government and army find themselves challenged by emboldened Islamic insurgents in 2022. This in turn is bad news for all vulnerable religious minorities who can become easy targets."
